Broner begins a new chapter – Fight projections and preview for weekend of 17/02

The Adrien Broner circus returns to town this Saturday night.

And to the surprise of many there’s a change of role for ‘The Problem’. No longer will he be playing the polarizing clown – a role that had become both entertaining and infuriating in equal measure. The new matureAdrien Broner‘ has eschewed that and begins his next act as ringmaster general.

This new-found maturity has, of course, already been called into question with the news the stipulated weight of his bout with Adrian Granados has increased from 140 to 147lbs.

It’s a fight that did have a modicum of intrigue. But with its move northward to 147lbs, further advantaging Broner, most of the intrigue has evaporated.

Granados is 3-1-2 at 147lbs against very average opposition. Broner may be 1-2 but has only mixed it at world level or just below.

Granados is getting support from insiders and many expect this to be a competitive, exciting fight.

It could be exciting.

Competitive? On the scales maybe.

Broner’s struggles (vs Maidana, Porter and Ponce de Leon) came against fringe world-class/world class level. His two lossec came on the only two occasions where Broner didn’t enjoy a significant weight advantage. Both Maidana and Porter, like Broner, balloon to around 160lbs on fight night

Granados does not fit either of these criteria. Its likely Broner will have 7-10lbs advantage on fight night and Granados has struggled at far below world level.

The reason for Broner’s problems versus larger fighters is due to his inability to impose his size. He’s misunderstood by many fans and pundits. Many think of him as clone – an inferior one – of Floyd Mayweather.

He’s more Land Wind than Land Rover. From the outside its hard to differentiate. Look under the bonnet, or peel away the decals and one uncovers the reality.

Broner is predominantly an inside fighter. This was music to the ears of Maidana who both operates in a similar space. Floyd was able to move when he wished against Maidana, especially in the rematch, making ‘Chino’ look clumsy and awkward on the outside. But Broner is flat-footed and his inadequacies are exaggerated when forced to move.

His inside game, however, is massively underappreciated. He has great defense there and controls distance with his lead arm. His short neck and position of his chin makes it hard to hit him clean when he’s close.

Offensively he punches to the body well and throws monstrous hooks and uppercuts when in close. Granados may enjoy the proximity but he uses strength and toughness while abandoning thought and guile.

So while Granados can ‘fight’ there; Broner can box there.

broner-granados

I like the price on Broner even at -300 (or 1/3). Too many of the boxing public are writing him off. He can make a sizeable living at this level. While Granados may have not been stopped as a pro, Emmanuel Taylor stopped him in the amateurs.

Broner to win 12u @ 1/3 (-300) & 4u KO @ +130 (13/10).

The main undercard bout features the return of Lamont Peterson. He takes on Russian David Avanesyan in a fight for some meaningless trinket.

The biggest imponderable here is the effect of Peterson’s lay-off, especially at the age of 33.

Peterson c.2015 is a substantial favorite here. He’s far too advanced a fighter to be troubled by the conventional and predictable Avanesyan.

At his best Peterson can fight 12 rounds either on the inside – as he did versus Khan – or box from the outside – as he did versus Garcia and Holt.

peterson-avanesyan

The layoff has to knock some gloss off the Peterson shine. But a fighter who’s always been well conditioned and maintains weight outside of camp, will always show greater longevity and see less effects from lay-offs.

Peterson to win 12u @ 1/3 (-300) & 3u KO @ +275 (11/4).

The third and final bout of relevance this weekend is Friday nights encounter between two Light-Heavyweight contenders, Marcus Browne and Thomas Williams.

Browne, a decent amateur is the bookies favorite. I agree and we give him a 69% chance of victory. Williams shot is by KO – he has a 31% chance of victory he has a 29% chance of KO.

We can attribute this to Williams’ straight-forward approach.

Williams’ fights one way. Hunting his opponents down behind a barrage of hooks. Such a desire to hurt the opponent overrides his desire to defend against countering fire. So he’s very open when delivering wide shots. He can be hurt and Gabriel Campillo – not a puncher – had him in retreat pretty early on.

Summary

Broner to win 12u @ 1/3 (-300) 

Broner to win KO 4u @ +130 (13/10)

Peterson to win 12u @ 1/3 (-300)

Peterson to win KO 3u @ +275 (11/4)

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