Fight projections for 10/12

Time for some quick projections.

Lets start with my pick of the night’s fights. From both an analytical point of view (my weakness) and competitiveness, Mares vs Cuellar has piqued my curiosity.

It feels like a crossroads fight. But the truth is far more complex. Whilst Cuellar was fighting at lower levels, Mares was pushed to heights by both talent and Golden Boy backing. He’s not finished he just peaked early.

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The public and bookmakers agree that Cuellar should be a healthy favorite (63%). But Mares is shortening a touch. So the time to pounce is now.

Cuellar’s toughest opponent – Oscar Escandon – beat him up. Cuellar tried to move and box. Stepping in and out throwing combos. Escandon broke him down.

Mares was a very talented amateur and only a howitzer from Gonzalez has stopped him in his tracks. If this becomes a slug-fest, Mares is too cultured for Cuellar. Take the decision prop too.

Take Mares 3u to win @ 13/8 (+162) & 2.5u DECĀ  @ 11/4 (+275)

In other action: the grandmaster Chavez returns. The less said about this the better. So I’ll finish there.

chavez-vs-britsch

Over in old omaha Terence Crawford returns to feast on Adrien Broner’s leftovers, John Molina. Molina has failed time and time again at world level. Dont expect that to change. Crawford is special. Like hall-of-fame special. That said lets keep on eye on the decision prop if it jumps to 13/8 I might take the jump.

crawford-molina

In the other interesting fight of the night, two young guns look to establish themselves. Jermall Charlo and Julian ‘j-rock’ Williams are talented and the books see a pick-em (55-45 Charlo). I don’t see it that way. Williams was an ordinary amateur and is completely unproven in the pros.

Charlo has seen off two tasty vets and seems the real deal to me. I see this 67/33 JC. Lets take the shot on Charlo to win at 4/5 (1.8)

 

SUMMARY

Mares 3u to win @ 13/8 (+162)

Mares 2.5u to win Dec @ 11/4 (+275)

Charlo 5u to win @ 4/5 (-125)

 

 

 

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